According to historical data, Premier League teams that finish with 36 or more points have been safe from relegation in each of the last nine seasons. Since the league expanded to 20 teams in the 1995-96 season, the average points total required to finish 17th and avoid the drop stands at 35.53.
No club has been relegated with 36 points in the past nine campaigns. However, the current season is shaping up to be the most challenging for survival in 15 years. After 35 matchdays, the team in 18th place is projected to end with 38 points, meaning 39 points would likely guarantee safety.
Over the 30 Premier League seasons with 38 games each, accumulating 36 points has secured survival 60% of the time. That percentage rises to 80% with 38 points, 90% with 40 points, and reaches 100% with 43 or more points.
West Ham United holds the unwanted record for the highest points total by a relegated team in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers finished with 42 points but still went down.
In the last two seasons, the safety threshold has been significantly lower, as newly promoted clubs struggled to adapt. A mere 26 points were enough to stay up in 2024-25, while 27 points sufficed in 2023-24. Prior to that, only once had a total below 30 points been enough to avoid relegation.
Tottenham missed the chance to move four points clear of the relegation zone after a 1-1 draw against Leeds United on Monday [Getty Images]
**Points needed to guarantee safety (based on 30 Premier League 38-game seasons):**
– 25 points or less – survival in 0/30 seasons (0%)
– 26 – 1/30 (3.33%)
– 27 – 2/30 (6.67%)
– 28 – 2/30 (6.67%)
– 29 – 3/30 (10%)
– 30 – 3/30 (10%)
– 31 – 4/30 (13.33%)
– 32 – 4/30 (13.33%)
– 33 – 4/30 (13.33%)
– 34 – 9/30 (30%)
– 35 – 16/30 (53.33%)
– 36 – 18/30 (60%)
– 37 – 23/30 (76.67%)
– 38 – 24/30 (80%)
– 39 – 26/30 (86.67%)
– 40 – 27/30 (90%)
– 41 – 29/30 (96.67%)
– 42 – 29/30 (96.67%)
– 43+ – 30/30 (100%)
**Historical points needed to survive in the Premier League (38-game seasons unless noted):**
– 1992-93 – 50 (42-game season)
– 1993-94 – 43 (42-game season)
– 1994-95 – 46 (42-game season)
– 1995-96 – 39
– 1996-97 – 41
– 1997-98 – 41
– 1998-99 – 37
– 1999-00 – 34
– 2000-01 – 35
– 2001-02 – 37
– 2002-03 – 43
– 2003-04 – 34
– 2004-05 – 34
– 2005-06 – 35
– 2006-07 – 39
– 2007-08 – 37
– 2008-09 – 35
– 2009-10 – 31
– 2010-11 – 40
– 2011-12 – 37
– 2012-13 – 37
– 2013-14 – 34
– 2014-15 – 36
– 2015-16 – 38
– 2016-17 – 35
– 2017-18 – 34
– 2018-19 – 35
– 2019-20 – 35
– 2020-21 – 29
– 2021-22 – 36
– 2022-23 – 35
– 2023-24 – 27
– 2024-25 – 26
This analysis comes from data compiled by BBC Sport’s Ask Me Anything team. They have also answered other questions, such as the modern struggles of Ajax, when Coventry City were last in the Premier League, and which countries will gain extra Champions League places.